CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLAYS! WRITE UPS + PICKS, welcome back!

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

All time record: 25-15, +7.82

Having had a glimpse at the lines, one particular line stood out. This line was Chelsea to beat Sparta Prague at 2.10. Wow! From what I recall of the game against Tottentham last weekend, Chelsea rested their main players for this game. I know the game is away but Chelsea are truly committed to winning the Champions League this year and I think they will pull through.
CHELSEA WINS 3-0
1 UNIT to win 1.10


My other picks include: parlay:
1) REAL MADRID over marseille at 1.36
2) MAN UTD over panathaniakos at 1.28
...no brainers here...
1 UNIT TO WIN 0.64

BESIKTAS EVEN BALL over lazio at 2.05
My turkish friend says this is a great play. Beskiktas have a decent team this year with many quality brazilians and are looking to get over their EUFA CUP defeat to Lazio last year. Worth a shot...
BESIKTAS WIN 1-0
0.50 UNITS to win 0.525

thats it for now...looking at arsenal game, dunno what to make of that yet..

Good luck

 

[acw]

Asian market moves have never been so accurate as they are these days, so I will just wait till 9 GMT, after Harry's guys finished correcting the Asian market. With a bit of luck Ido is then still sleeping.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I like the idea that you use Chelsea's motivation as a factor in your choice. I've seen motivated players beat the line across all sports.

 

[Duckstabber]

acw,

When you're reffering to "the Asian market", are you only thinking of Macau? Or other places too?

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Since you are saying 3-0 for Chelsea, would "over 2.5" be a good bet as well? I see where Chelsea's totals so far this season have all been 3 goals or more.

I haven't been able to find any info on Sparta's games. Can anyone direct me to a web site? I've already been to livescore, megalivescore and royalscore.

Thanks in advance.

 

[acw]

are you only thinking of Macau?
No.

Or other places too?
Indosoccer.

Macauslot's server is having some capacity problems. Indosoccer too, but they are quite close to me.

Talking about market moves I am not talking about the price dropping from 2.05 to 1.95, but the handicap itself must move roughly having the same payout. The move is that significant that you will see it on either site.

 

[soccerbob]

A2345- I'm looking at the Arsenal game as well. I haven't played it yet but I lean to Arsenal is this spot. This is a very big game for Arsenal even though it's just the first group game. Arsenal's recent performances in the Champion's league have left a lot to be desired and they have put themselves in trouble in the past for not taking full points from these home matches.

Out of the eight groups, I feel this is the weakest of the bunch when you look at the bottom two clubs which are Dynamo Kiev and Locomotiv Moscow. Inter Milan and Arsenel should advance as long as they don't slip up in their home matches. I just don't know where the scoring will come from for Inter Milan with Vieri and Recoba out and Crespo now at Chelsea. Arsenal's minds are clearly on this match as evidenced by their vanilla effort vs Portsmouth over the weekend. Wiltord and Lundberg came on late as subs so they got some rest and Arsenal figures to field a full squad. I think Arsene Wenger's side wants to start off with a solid home win and I like them to get it. This is now a play for me.

Arsenal -1/2 +105 over Inter Milan

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

Nice analyses there, I agree with everything you said. One more point to support your pick is, Vieri is 50/50 to start tomorrow, so if you do bet, bet now since we'll find out tomorrow if he's playig and if he isn't the line will drop, it still is at evens in some places, others at 1.90.

Good luck
by the way, ladbrokes has Over in Real Madrid game at 2.5/3 at 1.95. I think its a bargain at this price, whereas Bet365 has the over 2.5 at 1.66 which has no or little value. I'll take the possibility of a 3 goal game anyday to get half my money back but I think this game will be really high scoring and you can guess which team will do the most scoring...

good luck

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

Adding:

ARSENAL to beat inter milan at 2.00
Outlined in the 2 above posts.
ARSENAL WINS 2-0
1 UNIT to win 1

REAL MADRID/MARSEILLES over 2.5/3 at 1.95
Too good to pass by.
1 UNIT to win 0.95

i just hope i didnt bet too many games but I think i should be okay.

GOOD LUCK

 

[matahari]

acw,

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Talking about market moves I am not talking about the price dropping from 2.05 to 1.95, but the handicap itself must move roughly having the same payout. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Such moves are quite rare on CL matches if I'm not mistaken. I remeber few ones from the last season though, Roma-Ajax comes to mind...

 

[JackDee]

mark my words guys, these few bets are, well, a "must bet", besides anything else.

real sociedad -3/4 @ 1.85 over olympiakos 2 units.
1/2 a unit on aek - depo, depo level ball, and 1/2 a unit on the over.
real madrid over 1/2 a unit (raoul bravo (full back) as a central defender with pavon, no makelele and beckham in, nuff said and at the same time beckham, raoul, ronaldo, gidane, carlos, figo, nuff said.)

btw, acw, can you report on the line moves later on?

 

[JackDee]

add

1/2 a unit to porto against partizan on level ball, this tight, effective coach's team (porto) without the big stars in the line up (well, deco a possible exception), is a must bet on level ball against new comers in the cl partizan.

1/3 of a unit, on the lazio under, should be a defensive midfield game with either one, most probably the turks, edging a victory on the goal, max score i foresee is a 2-1 or 1-2.

1/3 of a unit on brugge - celta under.

 

[Duckstabber]

acw & matahari,

One of you guys (or others) with insigth in the Asian markets should start a thread about this topic. I'm sure the rest of us would benefit from this as market moves etc. is something few of us actually know how to interpret and use when capping the games. Enlighten me!

BigGamesOnly,

"I like the idea that you use Chelsea's motivation as a factor in your choice. I've seen motivated players beat the line across all sports."

The motivation factor is indeed important in football, but I seriously doubt that Sparta Prague will be any less motivated than Chelski... The money is even more important to the Czechs and with the home crowd supporting them I don't see how the motivation factor means anything tonight. Anyway, the ½ ball handicap looks about right to me and I won't bet on this game.

Good luck!

 

[acw]

btw, acw, can you report on the line moves later on?
Only one big mover: Club Brugge.
And I am not surprised.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

The public has been hitting Chelsea as well. I see it in some places at 1.83. I got it early at 2.10

 

[SkyMasterson+]

Brugge is coming back a bit now. Chelsea will go -1/2,-1 at some point in my opinion

 

[matahari]

The only reason for Brugge move I see, is that someone wanted to take Celta +0.5.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

3 great games, chelsea, man utd, real madrid on 3 different channels at the same time!
I'm tired of switching back and forth!

 

[chriscol]

you have to have "Premiere World" on german tv. You can choose to see every single game on it's own or switch to a "conference - channel", where they show you every game on one channel and switch to game, where the action is.

 

[JackDee]

great games man.

now let me quote a great capper twice, aka yours truly,

"real madrid over 1/2 a unit (raoul bravo (full back) as a central defender with pavon, no makelele and beckham in, nuff said and at the same time beckham, raoul, ronaldo, gidane, carlos, figo, nuff said.)"

Over, from first half, nuff said.

let me quote him/myself again:

"JackDee
red commie soviet mutineer!
posted July 09, 2003 07:12 AM
(...)
Btw, will anyone be on those real madrid over 2.5's next year or not? 1.1 odds will seem like value."

all my bets look good right now tonight, so i am on a high for sure, some of them will lose for sure, but so far so good.

bol, jack.

(too bad i wont be watching the rest of the games, dinner with the miss-es, and she's got some expensive taste for sure, i wonder whether i d be better off paying a bus-load of russian girls instead for a home visit, rather than pino gregios '85, and sea food and creme brules... but that's another story.)